A vicar’s daughter who voted ‘Remain’ and has little relevant negotiating experience, Theresa May chose her advisors badly, and has consequently been badly advised. We have paid the price; nearly three wasted years.
Following a catalogue of negotiating errors, the Establishment, with vested interests in remaining in the EU are now sensing that they can overturn the democratic will of the majority and seize victory. Their representatives are constantly on television discussion programmes, often outnumbering those representing the majority Leave vote. They have well-rehearsed mantras: ‘No one voted to be poorer’ and ‘No deal is off the table,’ plus their own vocabulary: ‘Crashing out, Falling off a cliff etc. This pejorative vocabulary is so pervasive that it has been adopted by television journalists who are supposed to be neutral, especially those working for the BBC whose own neutrality is open to question.
Project Fear
The fact that most voters saw through the unsubstantiated and sometimes ridiculous claims of Project Fear in the 2016 referendum campaign has not stopped its re-emergence. Trade organisations are particularly vocal in forecasting dire consequences for a no-deal Brexit. These same organisations fail to disclose the proportion of their members who make huge profits from importing foreign made goods into the UK.
Back-stop and Extensions
EU negotiators refuse to re-open their deal with Mrs May in order to overcome the problem with the back-stop and refuse to give another short extension without a significant change in the UK’s position. This tactic may backfire if Mrs May finally accepts that in this situation she is the problem. A new UK prime minister with superior negotiating skills will justify an extension and will want to recover the positions that Mrs May has surrendered to the EU with nothing in return.
Unconditional defence of Europe
In speeches during the last three years Theresa May has stated that the UK will unconditionally contribute to the defence of EU countries. The EU has banked this commitment and now takes UK involvement in Germany, the Baltic countries and the Black Sea for granted. EU countries do little to nothing to warn off encroaching Russian ships and aircraft in UK waters and airspace.
A new prime minister
If a new prime minister states that the UK’s intention is to leave NATO and seek a bi-lateral defence agreement with the USA. It would shake up the EU negotiators representing countries reneging on their NATO defence obligations and therefore make them vulnerable to Russian incursions without the UK and USA. If this seems a bit drastic, it may be what is required to obtain an acceptable deal that will pass through parliament.
C L K 09/04/2019
The Surrey Eunuch 